ANALYSIS: Key supporters missing in Egypt's "battle for democracy" (dpa)

Middle East News

By Pakinam Amer
Mar 24, 2007, 10:19 GMT

Cairo - Egyptian liberal and conservative opposition groups say they have lost key supporters in their so-called 'battle for democracy,' in which they are protesting possible controversial amendments to Egypt's constitution.

Egypt is to hold a referendum Monday on the amendments which would make changes to anti-terrorist legislation and the conduct of elections.

The amendments are believed to be a threat to civil liberties, undermining basic freedoms and judicial control over upcoming electoral processes.

Opposition members have underscored the absence of US support for their cause, while analysts deem this absence 'disappointing.' Meanwhile, most Coptic and Muslim religious leaders remain impartial, choosing neither to raise their voice in protest nor comment on the ongoing political row.

Last week, following the boycott of around 100 Muslim Brotherhood and independent lawmakers of two parliamentary sessions where the proposed amendments were finally discussed, the US expressed 'concern' over the political situation and the proposed changes.

US state department spokesman Sean McCormack said the amendments 'raise questions about whether or not the Egyptian government has in fact met its own standards and benchmarks.'

He declined to comment on President Hosni Mubarak's decision to move the referendum forward; a move which further angered opposition parties and sparked street protests.

Observers and activists alike expressed their 'disappointment' at the US' reaction, describing it as 'weak,' and 'falling short' of what they deemed 'real support.'

Observers have said that such a lack of support form the US makes the situation bleaker for the opposition.

In recent years, the US has been lending its support to liberal and pro-democracy activists in the Arab World, especially in Egypt.

For instance, during 2005's presidential and parliamentary elections, the US state department often issued strong statements against elements undermining democracy in Egypt, and against police brutality and restrictions on freedom of speech.

Arguably, the current absence of the kind of pressure imposed by the US state department during previous decisive political debates, has weakened the status opposition to the benefit of the government, and the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP).

According to Nabil Abdel-Fatah, senior political analyst at Egypt's Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies, the US's disappearance from the political scene has given the government 'freedom to squash opposing voices, impose a police state and an authoritarian political system.'

Although some say that US support had not been particularly effective, others say that it had raised the opposition forces' morale - in turn increasing their outspokenness in facing the Egyptian government's steel grip on politics.

'In the presence of the US support, (the government) was not as violent in confronting opposition. They would not breach human rights against some of members (of the opposition) and they could not openly clamp down upon the opposition,' said Abdel-Fatah.

Nevertheless, Abdel-Fatah and other analysts, however, believe that the US government's position is as predictable as it is disappointing.

The regional state of affairs, according to analysts, has forced the US to strengthen its ties with its allies in the Middle East; countries such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia which have a moderate and friendly attitude towards the Western state.

US expectations that supporting opposition would curb the Islamist and conservative movements in the Middle East, and in turn growing insurgency and fundamentalism, have also been unmet.

'After 9/11, the US pressure on authoritarian regimes was due to expectations that the presence of reform, economic and political potential would put destroy the roots of terrorism and the justifications for it, and in turn make its own country safer,' according to Abdel-Fatah. But this did not happen in the manner the US had envisioned, he added.

In addition, the US's 'meddling' was met by criticism and resistance from these authoritarian regimes, their supporters and even some impartial intellectuals.

The US's status in the Middle East, where foreign policies have made its position weaker especially with regard to the Iraq, Palestinian and Lebanese cases, has arguably made matters worse for pro-democracy activists in some parts in the region.

The US is seen as in 'desperate' need of Arab regimes that could push for a peace process brokered by the US, and would consider the interests of Israel. This US need has empowered these regimes, regardless of how 'authoritarian' they are.

'The US is now facing the crisis in Iran, the siutation in Labanon, Israel's inability to destroy Hezbollah. And Iraq,' said Nagy al-Ghatrify, senior leader of the al-Ghad liberal party. 'The US now feels that it is in need of these authoritarian regimes and so has stopped its support. The US' interests rule.'

Columnist and political writer Gamal Essam el-Din explains that the Egyptian regime does not care anymore about defaming its image, 'because there is no pressure on it.'

Meanwhile, state religious leaders have also been reduced to obsevers (perhaps by choice) of the political arena. Pope Shenouda, Patriarch of Alexandria and the spiritual leader of Coptic Christians, has distanced himself from the turmoil, only saying that the people have the opportunity to voice their opinions in the upcoming referendum.

Most Muslim religious leaders remain impartial, refusing to comment on the current crisis of sort.

However, on Friday, the Grand Azhar Sheikh Mohammed Sayyid Tantawy, one of the highest Muslim authorities in Egypt, spoke very briefly against refraining from participation in the constitutional referendum; urging the Muslims to vote without commenting on the current affairs.

Analyst Abdel-Fatah deemed Shenouda's reaction 'a politically astute answer,' adding that Muslim leaders - most of them government employees - are avoiding any type of confrontation with theregime.

'They don't want to say anything negative, anything that could lead to problems with the government,' he said.

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