ANALYSIS: Shiite militants change tactics against new security plan (DPA)

Middle East News

By Pakinam Amer
First Published: Feb 7, 2007

Baghdad/Cairo (dpa) - Following the death of two of their senior leaders, the Shiite Sadr faction has threatened an uprising in Iraq - but their threats are downplayed by security analysts.

The faction, analysts say, cannot afford a direct confrontation with the US military forces and the government which are now putting in place their new security plan.

"The US forces are trying to provoke the Mahdi militias into a direct confrontation" which the latter cannot afford, said Baghdad University analyst and political science professor Hamid Fadel.

The Mahdi Army is a feared militia loyal to the powerful Muqtada al-Sadr, who controls a political bloc in the Iraqi parliament on which Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki is dependent. Nor are they the only Shiite militia that the government is affiliated with.

Recently however, joint Iraqi and US army forces declared an offensive against the Shiite cult Soldiers of Heaven in Najaf, killing more than 260 of cult members after a day of clashes.

The offensive marked a new strategy by the government towards Shiite militias - some of whom were previously heavily protected by members of al-Maliki‘s cabinet.

The Shiite-led cabinet headed by al-Maliki has been accused of fighting a largely one-front war against Sunnis and Baath insurgents - although the war should have also targeted the Shiite militias who are suspected in the wave of killings and kidnappings in the country.

But not until US President George W Bush warned the Iraqigovernment that it must get tougher on the insurgency or face the consequences that Baghdad‘s stance became firmer.

In a move to assure the US administration, al-Maliki apparently sought to deny that his government is sectarian and so a change of tactics was needed when it came to handling the militias.

"The Iraqi government was being accused by everyone - internal groups and foreign forces," Fadel added.

Last Sunday, Bahaa al-Aaraji, a Sadrist MP, in what appeared to be a threat, warned that a "huge upheaval" would occur if the policemen did not stop targeting Sadrists.

Although Fadel said these "military threats" are void, he added that using its popularity at the street level, Sadr is capable of mobilizing the public against the government.

But even after al-Aaraji‘s warning, security forces continued their raids. High-profile Sadrists were arrested in the course of the past few days. On Monday, Najaf supporters of top Shiite authority Ayatollah Mahmoud al-Hosni were also targeted.

It is not clear if these and the Najaf operations were a signal of goodwill to Bush - or a message to the armed Shiite militias who are almost embarrassing al-Maliki by adopting violence.

But it could very well be a dual message. When al-Maliki was appointed as premier he led a Shiite coalition - the United Iraqi alliance - that consisted among others of his own Islamic Dawa Party as well as the Supreme Council of the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI) and the infamous Sadr faction.

Analysts say this puts Maliki in a dilemma. On the one hand he is trying to clamp down on Badr organization, which is SCIRI‘s military wing and the Mahdi army under al-Sadr. On the other, he is trying to maintain stable ties with their affiliated deputies in parliament.

The government has shown great reluctance about getting tough on Shiite militias. In January, for example, after US and Iraqi security forces detained an alleged Sadri leader of a punishment squad, Iraqi authorities quickly promised he would be released.

In short, the government showed readiness to bow to Sadri pressures. But then US patience began to wear thin, in turn threatening to weaken al-Maliki‘s position as Iraq‘s leader.

Now it appears that al-Maliki manoeuvring may be working. The US, following the Najaf operations and the arrests in the Mahdi ranks, may be taking notice.

On Tuesday, a US embassy spokesman in Baghdad told the press that it is understandable that dismantling armed groups in Iraq "takes time" and was difficult and could not be accomplished overnight. But the diplomat, Lou Fintor, said al-Maliki‘s government was capable of meeting its commitment about putting a stop to the death squads.

Al-Maliki and Shiite militias also seem to be forming a sort of "agreement" whereby the main Shiite militias would limit their operations, change their tactics and in turn give the impression that al-Maliki had successfully controlled the raging forces, suggests Iraqi analyst Fadel.

Halting the activity of the militias - even if it‘s temporary - is a show of power, he believes.

Fatah el-Sheikh, senior member of Sadr politburo, said that his movement is fully aware that - at this point - the US forces were intensifying their operations.

"But we will deal with this with our best weapons - patience and wisdom," he said.

© 2007 dpa - Deutsche Presse-Agentur

Links: http://rawstory.com/news/2007/Shiite_militants_change_tactics_aga_02062007.html
http://www.jurnalo.com/jurnalo/storyPage.do?story_id=15882
http://www.playfuls.com/news_10_12683-Shiite-Militants-Change-Tactics-Against-New-Security-Plan.html