DPA: Three potential civil wars loom in Middle East

By Pakinam Amer
dpa German Press Agency
Published: Tuesday December 19, 2006

By Pakinam Amer, Cairo:­ The spectre of civil war in the Middle East loomed in three separate regions as the year drew to a close. In Iraq, Lebanon and the Palestinian Territories, central government faced a serious armed challenge to its authority.

During his last visit to the region, British Prime Minister Tony Blair acknowledged that the situation in the region was "difficult." In what was subsequently played down as a slip of the tongue he had previously called the situation in Iraq "a disaster."

Calls by Iraqi Premier Nuri-al-Maliki for reconciliation and the formation of a government of national unity were drowned out by gunfire and reports of the bodies found scattered around Baghdad.

After the meeting between US President George W Bush and al-Maliki ­ held in Amman far from the fighting - members of parliament and ministers loyal to Shiite leader Moqtada al-Sadr boycotted the government.

"The political system in Iraq is pushing the country to the verge of civil war. It has slashed the society to pieces," said Abdel-Wahab Qassab, an Iraqi analyst. "What we have now is already a weaker form of civil war between Iraqi rivals."

Shiite and Sunni mosques were recently torched. Worshippers were dragged from prayers and burnt alive in one the worst of the sectarian attacks that US and Iraqi troops appear powerless to prevent.

In and around Baghdad, Iraqis have started securing their own neighbourhoods, with volunteers patrolling at night and roads sealed off with tree trunks.

Death squads have now become associated with groups in parliament.

The Iraqi resistance of the Sunni militias has become a significant power.

According to a classified US government report disclosed by the New York Times, Iraqi militias raise millions of dollars annually from kidnapping and oil smuggling.

The presence of US troops has contributed to the unrest, but their withdrawal could threaten even more chaos.

"If the Iraqi government can't stop sectarian killing today when it is able to call on the world's most powerful military, it can hardly be expected to do so when the Americans have left," says US political columnist Aparisim Ghosh in Time magazine.

The situation in Iraq has had an impact on domestic politics in the United States, with the Democrats securing wins in the mid-term elections and Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld paying the price.

In Lebanon, the same faces that fuelled the previous civil war can still be seen on both sides, even though new alliances are being forged.

Through December, opposition rallies led by Hezbollah and pro-Syrian opposition leaders continued, amid speculation the government ­ now called labelled "illegitimate" by some - will be forced to compromise.

In central Beirut, thousands carrying flags, beating drums and wearing Hezbollah head-bands camped out near the government buildings.

A few metres away and separated only by security officers, soldiers, tanks and barbed wire, the members of the Lebanese government took shelter in Prime Minister Fouad Seniora's Ottoman-era palace.

Hezbollah seemed to be holding back from outright confrontation, although it had indicated it could paralyse public institutions, such as the airport, ports, and public administration.

In Lebanon, those who survived the last civil war started stockpiling food, securing to their homes and laying in candles for possible power cuts. Lebanese Sunni fundamentalists have said on websites that they are preparing for war.

In the Palestinian Territories, there were three sides to the violence.

Israeli officials warned that a new round of violence in the Gaza Strip appeared "unavoidable." In the Egyptian Gazette, Otneil Shneler, a legislator from Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's Kadima party, was quoted as saying that he believed the Palestinian-Israeli ceasefire to be "temporary."

Among the Palestinians themselves the division between Hamas and Fatah grew. Despite a fragile ceasefire, it was only a question of time before internal tensions resurfaced, observers said.

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas announced early elections and issued a warning to the Hamas government. "They will not scare us," he said.

The struggle between Hamas and Fatah is a long-running one over power and territory. Hamas is more powerful in the Gaza Strip, while Fatah is more dominant in the West Bank.

Fatah has for decades seen itself as the natural leader of the Palestinians, while Hamas was boosted by its victory in parliamentary elections at the beginning of the year. That victory - a first for Hamas - brought isolation from the West.

"We're juggling with the strong potential of three civil wars in the region, whether it's the Palestinians, that of Lebanon or of Iraq," said Jordan's King Abdullah in an interview with ABC's This Week."

He was particularly pessimistic about the Palestinian Territories. "I don't believe that beyond mid-2007 - if we don't get the process going - there will be anything of a Palestine to talk about," Abdullah said.

© 2006 dpa German Press Agency

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