dpa German Press Agency
Published: Tuesday December 19, 2006
By Pakinam Amer, Cairo - Iran's influence in the Middle East could rise in 2007, unless there is a radical turnaround in events, in the view of observers and analysts in the region.
Forces opposed to the United States - the Syrian government, Shiites in Iraq and in Lebanon - are forging alliances with the Shiite state, which is establishing its position as a power broker in the region.
Shortly before the year ended, Syrian President Bashar Assad told the Italian daily La Repubblica that Western states had to be willing to talk to Syria and Iran if they wanted to stabilize the situation in Iraq.
Syria, although overwhelmingly a Sunni state, has recently bolstered relations with Iraq through exchanging ambassadors after almost a quarter of a century of cool relations.
Iran has been keen to draw Syria in and invited both Iraqi and Syrian leaders to a summit on the violence in Iraq.
Baghdad has also been bolstering economic ties with Iran. Near the end of the year, Tehran and Baghdad signed 48 documents on bilateral cooperation and expanding ties in political, economic, security, defence and cultural areas.
Analysts say Iran has long wanted good relations between Tehran and Baghdad.
"The picture is now quite clear: there is an open Iranian endeavour to intimidate the region to attain multiple aims. Some are economic-geopolitical and some are religious," says Abdel-Wahab Qassab, Iraqi analyst and head of the Iraqi Dar Centre for Future Studies.
In Iraq, "foreign intervention" has been blamed for the sectarian violence verging on civil war, with fingers pointed at Iran. Some observers have even said that the "chaos" in Iraq serves Iranian interests.
But Iranian studies professor and Egyptian analyst Mohammad Said Abdel-Moneim does not believe that Iran would "permit" a civil war in Iraq.
"A civil war would endanger Iran and its borders as much as it would hurt Iraq," he says. "Iran cannot establish itself in Iraq unless there is relative calm and stability. Iraq has to be stable enough for Shiite and Iranian relations to be shored up and for Iran to benefit from these relations strategically and economically," Abdel-Moneim says.
He adds "Iran will not let the state of affairs turn into a civil war. It will definitely use its influence among the Iraqi Shiites and the Kurds to present wiser and more balanced elements to deal with the infighting factions."
Although Qassab also does not directly accuse Iran of "meddling" in Iraq, he does say that Iranian-backed militias are causing civil unrest there.
"Those encouraging the militias are foreign elements from Iran," Qassab says. "The Iranian militias are carrying out what could be called ethnic cleansing."
According to Qassab, Iranian control over Iraq is growing and is both a risk to the sovereignty of Iraq and to US global policy, even though its interests do not lie in fomenting civil war.
Nevertheless Iran could possibly benefit from unrest, as this further weakens US influence.
"The introduction of the foreign Sunni fighting element gave Iran a double chance in promoting its goals in Iraq," he says in reference to Syrian-backed militias in Iraq.
Iran aimed to control the activities of these foreign fighters through its influence over Syria, seen by the United States as the main covert supporter of these militias.
The Kurds meanwhile are strongly opposed to these Iranian efforts, "partly because there is an agenda agreed by the Kurdish and Shiite leaderships."
Iran has also used its intelligence services to gain control over Iraqi internal affairs and to increase its media presence there.
"There are at least 10 (Iranian) satellite TV channels broadcasting in Arabic, and around the same number of radio stations," Qassab says.
"The (Iranian) publishing agencies in Arabic are doing their best in this field, the endowments, the reconstruction of Shiite shrines not only in Iraq, but in Syria and even in Jordan are examples," he says.
In Lebanon, the Shiite Hezbollah is backed by neighbouring Syria and by Iran. In the current tension in Beirut, Iran has been quick to support the Lebanese Shiites, and thus also to back Syria indirectly.
According to an analysis by the Middle East Media Research Institute, the state-run Iranian daily Kayhan, affiliated with Iranian supreme leader Ali Khamenei, is calling for a change in "the political balance of power in Lebanon in favour of the Shiites."
The Tehran Times has said that failure by the Lebanese government of Fouad Seniora to respond to the opposition's demands for a government of national unity with Shiites as the majority could lead to clashes.
© 2006 dpa German Press Agency
Link:
http://rawstory.com/news/2006/Iran_s_influence_in_Middle_East_to__12192006.htmlhttp://www.kurdmedia.com/articles.asp?id=13811
http://news.monstersandcritics.com/middleeast/features/article_1237454.php/2006_Review_Irans_influence_in_Middle_East_to_rise_in_2007
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